Charlie's Blog: November 2024

11.24.2024

The Entrepreneurship Problem

 There is no accounting for taste.
AGE OLD MAXIM

This one is another item from the "ideas in storage" which are things I contemplated years ago and left unfinished. This is the most vexing of them all which I call "the entrepreneurship problem." De gustibus non est disputandum is a Latin phrase that says, "In matters of taste, there can be no disputes." The simpler version is that there is no accounting for taste. That is the kernel of the entrepreneurship problem. You will go broke trying to account for the taste of the public.

95% of all businesses go bust in the first five years of operation. I heard that stat decades ago, and I believe it to be true. There are some things an entrepreneur can do to push the odds in his favor such as not loading up on debt, but there is no way to make the public buy your widgets. And you will pull your hair out trying to guess what widgets they want to buy. This problem is why so many businesses fail and why so many people are unable to beat the stock market. Entrepreneurship is gambling. There is no other way to view it.

Playing blackjack has better odds than entrepreneurship. The simple fact is that capitalism destroys a lot of capital. If you have ever seen a dead shopping mall or a defunct Blockbuster, you know this to be true. Gambling your money on a business venture makes no sense. Yet, many create businesses to watch them fail in misery. You will go broke trying to guess and serve the fickle interests of the public.

As a blogger, I know this firsthand. I would love to have a high traffic blog. People recommend all sorts of self-promotion gimmicks and search engine optimization strategies, but they are no substitute for content. To get readers, you have to write things they want to read. I have no clue what the public wants to read. I only know what I want to read, and I write that content. At the end of the day, I write because it helps me think. This is why I will abandon this blog one day and just write in some notebooks. That day is not today.

One of the strategies that I have for dealing with the entrepreneurship problem is to invest in low cost index funds. I am agnostic when it comes to businesses, so I buy the basket of stocks instead of trying to pick the winners. I wish there was a similar strategy for blogging, but there isn't. The closest I have to a strategy is to write what you like and know and to be eclectic. I am always surprised by what gets traffic and what doesn't. It is never what I would have picked.

Another strategy I have is to lower costs. Thrift is always a winning strategy. Steve Jobs may have started Apple, but Tim Cook made it massively profitable by cutting costs with outsourcing production to China. Saving money is not as sexy as creating innovative products, but it is the most reliable way to make a profit. Thrift is the cornerstone of good management.

The problem with thrift is that you have to make money in order to save it. This is why Apple is more profitable than Dell. Without that customer demand, the best you can do is managed decline. This is what happened to Apple when they fired Steve Jobs, and this is why their decline was reversed when they brought him back. Talent matters even if you can't explain it.

Another strategy I have is consistency. I don't know what the public wants, but they don't want to be punked. When they buy a rock album, they don't want to hear a disco album on the turntable. Coke discovered this with New Coke.

Entrepreneurial success boils down to pure dumb luck. Content creators on the internet discover this when something they produce goes viral. They are rarely able to duplicate that success and end up becoming what we know as one hit wonders.

Is there something that the public wants and always wants without having to play the entrepreneurial guessing game? Yes! That something is money. People always want money. You don't even have to consider the color or the flavor. The problem with money comes down to supply. This is why the financial industry is the most reliable way to make money. The demand for money will always exceed the supply. As a wise man once put it, "If you want to make money, work in money." This is why the doctor's stockbroker drives a nicer car than the doctor.

I find financial services to be morally repulsive. I knew a girl once who made a hefty paycheck working in the payday lending industry. I can't do that sort of thing. People who work in these predatory financial industries justify it all by claiming they are helping their victims. They are merely exploiting their victim's desperation and stupidity.

There is something the entrepreneur wants, and that is labor. Somebody has to put the soda in the bottle and get it to the grocery store. This is why you can reliably earn a wage of some kind in our capitalist economy even if you are clueless when it comes to entrepreneurship. If you can work, people will pay you. This is why the mass of people work for the lucky few.

Eventually, the good luck of the entrepreneur runs out. This is why the exit strategy has become so popular over the last few decades. People start a business now in the hope of selling it to a larger corporation. Imagine Steve Jobs selling out to IBM. That is essentially what we have happening today.

The most reliable way to make money is with labor. You can sell your labor to an employer, or you can sell it directly to the public with a service type business. I am a big fan of service based businesses like lawn care, oil changing places, housecleaning businesses, and on and on. I am not a fan of serving the public taste like a convenience store or a restaurant. Offering products instead of services is how you gamble and go broke.

My formula for success is simple. Work for an employer. Start a service based business with your own labor. Be thrifty. Invest in index funds. This is grinding. You won't become a billionaire, but you will have a decent living. Don't fall for thinking you will be the next Jeff Bezos with a business selling books out of your garage. Bezos gambled and won. Everyone else lost. I recommend winning by not losing.

This blog is the only gambling that I do today. Each post I write and publish represents a pull on the lever of the internet slot machine. Once in a blue moon, I will write something that goes semi-viral. Otherwise, I might get 20 views for a post like this. I know that half of those come from bots trolling the ocean floor of the internet. The upside is that this blog reminds me again and again that entrepreneurship is gambling. The only reason I keep playing is that I am a writer who is compelled to put his thoughts into words. I will write for the rest of my days even if no one reads what I have written. Ultimately, I am writing for myself. If I was publishing for the world, I would repost memes and cat videos. Facebook has this covered.

In conclusion, the only antidote I have for the entrepreneurship problem is to not play the game. Focus on thrift, labor, index funds, and service based businesses. Don't open a restaurant or gamble on some app or widget you have developed. You can't make people like anything or pay money for it. And if you see some lucky entrepreneur that made it big, consider the unseen folks who gambled and lost. People always forget the losers, but the losers tell us the truth about things. Luck is not skill. In entrepreneurship, you want to be lucky.

11.17.2024

Breakfast Of Champions

Breakfast is everything. The beginning, the first thing. It is the mouthful that is the commitment to a new day, a continuing life.
A.A. GILL

I don't always eat breakfast. I always suffer when this happens. The reason I skip breakfast these days is that I don't always have the energy to make it. This lack of energy gets compounded by the fact that I am undercarbed and uncaffeinated because of the skipped breakfast.

Before I went plant based, a typical breakfast for me would be 2 bacon, egg, and cheese biscuits from a fast food place like McDonald's or Bojangles coupled with 2 orders of hash browns and the biggest Mountain Dew they served. Yes, this breakfast is excessive and would give me chest pains after eating it. My only defense is that I ate little to no lunch because of my driven workaholic nature back then. Today, the thought of eating that crap makes me feel sick inside. It was fun when I was young and stupid.

When I gave up the crap and started eating a plant based diet, I would eat cold cereal with almond milk or soy milk. This meal didn't cut it for me because it was expensive and left me with no energy. I switched to eating oatmeal, and that changed my life. Most plant based eaters have a bowl of oatmeal each morning. I prefer the old fashioned oats which I nuke in the microwave. This brings me to my "Breakfast of Champions" as listed below:

2 cups of black coffee with 1 teaspoon of sugar in each cup

1 glass of ice water with a good splash of 100% cranberry juice

1 glass of plain ice water

1 bowl of oatmeal with black strap molasses, honey, cinnamon, and a spoonful of natural peanut butter. (Chopped up banana is optional depending upon supply.)

I used to drink 6 cups of coffee each day, but caffeine has no effect on me anymore since my traumatic brain injury. I can drink coffee and still fall asleep. The reason I still drink coffee is for regularity. 2 cups usually does the trick for me. I also recommend drinking water along with the coffee as dehydration is the main culprit in constipation. (Some brain experts recommend not consuming caffeine, but I don't listen to them.)

I drink the cranberry juice to help prevent urinary tract infections. I don't get UTIs often, but it takes more to cure one than to prevent one. I also like the taste of cranberry juice diluted in a glass of water.

The oatmeal is almost total carbohydrate. The peanut butter adds a bit of fat and protein to the carb heavy breakfast. Ignore the low carb idiots. Carbs are king.

I have been eating this breakfast for over a decade. I eat grits and pancakes on Sunday when my wife and I have the time to make them. They are not as good as the oatmeal, but they are tasty. When I eat oatmeal, I have better days. When I don't eat oatmeal, the days are not so good.

I am not a doctor or a dietitian, so do not take any of this as health advice. This is simply the breakfast that has worked for me for the last decade. It is quick to make and fuels the day. I can also attest that my coworkers found me with improved productivity and energy for the job when I made the switch from eating crap. I really miss those productive days before the damage to my brain.

11.10.2024

Unpopular Opinions 8 (Super Size Edition)

When a man gives his opinion, he's a man. When a woman gives her opinion, she's a bitch.
BETTE DAVIS

I must be a man because I have been giving my opinion for years. To have unpopular opinions must be especially manly. Or, it might be bitchiness. I will leave that to the Gentle Reader to decide. Here is an extra large dose of unpopular opinions.

1. Science fiction and fantasy are terrible genres.

I grew up with Star Wars and Star Trek. I read Dune and Lord of the Rings. Those works are the top of their respective genres, and I do not care for them. I prefer reading and watching mysteries, westerns, and action stories.

My issue with science fiction and fantasy is that they transport you to alternate worlds. The bulk of the story is spent showing and explaining that alternate world. Over the long haul, the story is lost in the process of details and even made up languages. You ask too much from the reader to maintain this huge edifice of imagination.

I like basic stories set in the real world whether past or present. Simple is better.

2. People spend their time thinking of what they are going to say instead of actually listening to the other person.

When people talk, I know they are not actually listening to me. Sometimes, I find that I am not listening to them either. I am thinking of what I am going to say at the next break. Until that break, you are talking to the wall. When my turn comes, I am talking to the wall.

I try to keep my mouth shut. I save most of what I want to say for this blog. If people care, they will read the blog. If not, I said what I wanted to say. Everyone should have a blog. Most just have social media accounts.

3. Alpha/Beta/Sigma/Gamma is all nonsense.

This typology for males amounts to astrology for men. Women love to know if you are a sagittarius or a pisces or whatever because they want to know your personality. Others use temperaments like melancholy or phlegmatic. Then, there is that Myers-Briggs garbage. I place no stock or belief in any of these taxonomies of personality types. The farthest I will go is to classify people as either extroverts or introverts. This helps in selecting between salesmen and auto mechanics.

4. Joe Rogan is not funny.

I listen to clips of Joe Rogan's podcast. I never listen to his stand up comedy. I did it once, and I don't think the guy is funny at all. I scratch my head and wonder how he ever got famous and rich.

5. Wired earbuds are superior to wireless earbuds.

I suspect that I have discussed this one before in another edition of Unpopular Opinions, but this time I am trying to be more positive for the wired earbuds and headphones. I recently replaced my JVC headphones for my desktop PC. The original pair must have been a decade old when one side finally quit on me. I bought another set just like the original. On my Walkman, I have a cheap pair of blue earbuds that I bought almost six years ago from a Harris Teeter grocery store. Those are still awesome.

I like being able to plug something in, and they work for YEARS at a cheap price. Because wired earbuds are cheap and reliable, Big Tech decided they needed to change this with something unreliable, expensive, and easy to lose. They also have to be charged daily. The removal of the headphone jack from phones and devices is pure evil.

6. The fedora is a ridiculous hat for the vast majority of men today.

I know some fellows who are able to wear a fedora and not look ridiculous. Indiana Jones is one of them. The Blues Brothers are the other two. I know of one guy in real life who wears a fedora and would look weird without it. When I try on a fedora or any other brimmed hat, I look like a clown. When I watch old movies and TV shows, those guys with fedoras look like clowns. I don't know why some guys can pull off wearing a fedora and others can't. I know I can't.

7. I totally believe in ghosting people.

Ghosting someone is when you cease all contact with someone who is incapable of listening. The ghosted party will claim all sorts of hurt, surprise, and confusion about the matter. They have no idea why they were ghosted. They know. They were told. They were told repeatedly. They never bothered to listen.

I say this all the time. The only time people listen to me is when I stop talking to them. They are all ears then. But, by then, it is too late. As soon as you open your mouth, their ears close right up again.

I can truly say that ghosting people and ceasing contact is the only remedy for people with Narcissistic Personality Disorder. From what I have gleaned from Dr. Phil and others, there is no way to reach someone with NPD. They are lost. The only thing you can do is get them out of your life.

8. Vacation homes are ridiculous.

There is this story of Warren Buffett living in the same home he bought back in 1950something. People tell this story to show Mr. Buffett's modesty, folksiness, humility, and thriftiness. What they neglect to mention is Warren Buffett's second home in California that is not so modest or thrifty. It was a beach home for vacations. He recently sold the property for $7.5 million. He owned it since 1971.

For almost 2 years, no one wanted to buy Warren Buffett's Southern California vacation home, but it finally sold for $7.5 million

I am opposed to vacation homes. I don't care if it is a shack by the beach, a house on the lake, or a cabin in the mountains. I find vacation real estate to be the grossest form of lifestyle inflation short of a Jeff Bezos superyacht. Yet, it is very common. I have lost count of the people I know who own a second home purely for recreation.

When it comes to vacation accomodations, I believe you are always better off renting. Owning is for show offs who like to blow money on seldom used things. That was certainly the case with Mr. Buffett.

9. Solar watches are a waste of money.

I was into solar watches until someone told me that the batteries don't last any longer than regular watch batteries. You can charge the batteries on a solar watch, but they will have to be replaced at the same intervals as standard watch batteries. I just get the regular watches now because they are cheaper, and I don't have to bake them in the sunlight to get them recharged.

10. Beach cruisers are the best bicycles.

I am not a bicycle person. I have tried to be a bicycle person, but bicycles don't work for me. But, if I did buy a bicycle, it would be a beach cruiser. I would also have to live at the beach to go with the bike. I don't live at the beach, so that is a moot point.

I find beach cruisers appealling because they are cheap and comfortable. I can't say the same for road bikes or moutain bikes. As for Dutch style commuter bikes, those are great for city biking. But I'd rather walk on the sidewalk than take my chances on two wheels in the street.

11. Schools should ban smartphones.

There is a move by many public school educators, schools, and school boards to ban smartphones from the classroom. This move is long overdue. Teachers cannot compete with these distraction devices. Smartphones make kids stupid just like they do with adults. The dumbest adults are parents who buy smartphones for their children. But I digress. . .

Dumbphones could be suitable, but they were starting to become problems a decade ago. I think kids could have these as long as they turned them off like I do when I am in church.

12. Schools should ban tackle football.

A kid died recently from a brain injury he sustained playing high school football. There are lesser injuries that are still life altering that come from playing tackle football. This is certainly an unpopular opinion, but I think it will become more popular as tackle football takes its toll on young brains.

13. Replace the batteries in your Casio watch.

When people buy a cheap Casio watch, they assume they will dump the watch when the battery dies. This is a huge mistake. It is worth the time and money to replace that battery and keep the watch. The replacement battery for my G-Shock was $1, and I was able to get the job done in less than an hour watching a YouTube video. The battery is the same as the one that goes in the F-91W. These watches are super durable, so you will save money by replacing the batteries.

14. Dumb down your smartphone.

I still use a flip phone and will continue to do so as long as I can. I know a forced upgrade to a smartphone may be inevitable. When it comes, I am going to dumb that phone down to the basics I need. I recommend this to those people who have to use smartphones because of their jobs or whatever. The key thing is to remove social media apps. Make your phone as undistracting as possible.

15. Negative displays on digital watches are stupid.

The negative display is the easiest and most popular mod for digital watches. It is also the dumbest. You find this out when you try to tell time on the thing in sunlight. The positive display is the hands down winner.

People like the negative display because it looks cool and badass. This is a dumb reason to have a negative display. Utility matters more than looks.

Casio G-Shock GWM5610 Negative vs Positive Display

16. Women can't be minimalists.

My wife watches minimalist and decluttering videos by various women YouTubers and remarks that they have more stuff in their homes than we have. Where is the minimalism? Are we just watching hypocrites posing as influencers?

I don't think women can be minimalists. It is not in their nature. Men can be minimalists because they tend to be Spartan in their various fields of endeavor preferring the less is more approach. On the other hand, women accumulate crap. They buy each other crap.

Minimalism appeals to these women because they conclude correctly that their lives would be better without all of the accumulated crap. The problem is that they cannot follow through with the commitment to minimalism. Their videos on YouTube amount to dreams of wish fulfillment. They are not reality.

I am not a minimalist. I am a declutterer who aims to discard one item each day from my life in a practice called the "daily declutter." I think this is a more realistic and successful strategy for both men and women.

17. Fanny packs and slings are purses for men.

I think how convenient it would be to carry a small bag around for some of my gear. I can't get over the feeling that these small bags are purses. My preferred bag remains a backpack.

18. I like ankle socks and crew socks.

Gen Z has come out against ankle socks in favor of crew socks. I wear ankle socks with my walking shoes. I wear crew socks with my work boots. I always wear long pants, so I doubt anyone would notice my sock length. This is just stupid fashion nonsense.

19. TRT is the same as steroids.

Older men like Joe Rogan and RFK, Jr. take testosterone replacement therapy. The result is that each have physiques that don't match their ages. I'd like to see what an old guy could do full natty.

20. The dangers of sitting are overblown.

I think a sedentary lifestyle is bad for your health, but I disagree with all those researchers who claim that sitting is the new smoking. I think that makes for great clickbait headlines, but it isn't reality. Daniel Lieberman does a great job debullshitting those claims:

Is Sitting the New Smoking? A Harvard Professor Debunks the Myth, With 1 Catch

Why Sitting Isn’t the Problem Debunking the Myths

Sitting is the default when you don't exercise or move at all. Naturally, sitting takes the rap for the sedentary lifestyle. But if you go out and walk five miles a day and do manual labor, you can take a chair without feeling bad about it and relax for a bit. This is called common sense which many researchers lack. The reality is that the human body requires both exercise and rest.

21. People want buttons and ports on their tech products.

Apple is the king of minimalist design for tech which is why their products suck. People don't want minimalism in their tech. They want sensibility. This means physical buttons, ports, and earphone jacks. Simple is better but only when it has common sense.

8 years after declaring it took 'courage' to remove the iPhone's headphone jack, Apple has finally decided buttons and ports are cool again

22. Common sense will always be in the minority.

If you read a headline that says that teens are becoming more conservative and traditional or that the general public is taking a turn towards thrift and frugality, don't believe it. These are clickbait headlines crafted by journalists on deadline in a vain attempt to attract eyeballs during a slow news cycle. Common sense prevails over the long term, but this is mostly the result of attrition as fools meet their foolish ends. The general trend will always be on the side of the stupid. Stupid replaces stupid. The wise are a stubborn minority fighting the trend and the herd.

23. In capitalism, supply always meets demand.

Every so often, you see there is a shortage of something--toilet paper, tech workers, tradesmen, etc. Prices go up in times of scarcity which prompts more production as companies and workers go chasing those profits. This is why the high paying job of today turns into the low paying job of tomorrow. Right now, the trades are paying well, but this wasn't the case when I was in high school back in the 1980s. They told us all to go to college, and everyone did. Today, we have a glut of college grads and a shortage of welders. This will reverse itself and repeat itself.

24. Playing physical media in your car is a bad idea.

I had a deck chew up a cassette in the nineties. My wife has a CD still stuck in her car's CD player. These things can't handle bumps which is why you should only listen to the radio in the car. I can't speak to plugging in a smartphone since I don't own one, but I suspect a device like that would not be a problem. As a corollary, I never bought Walkmans that played cassettes or discs because of similar problems. Physical media is meant for times of leisure and not on the go. This is why I only listen to this stuff at home.

25. Remote work is a scam.

I have watched the productivity war between employers and employees for decades. It began with computers in the office. Employers discovered that their employees were goofing off on the internet, so they threw in firewalls and trackers. Then, the employers decided to start filching from their employees by making them work 24/7 with the Blackberry phones aka as the "Crackberry." Not to be outdone, employees struck back with their iPhones where they brought goofing off back to the office place. Then, Covid came which brought remote work to the game of make believe work. Now, office workers consider remote work to be a natural right. The reality is that they do just enough work to not get fired while freeing up way more time for personal chores and goofing off at home. It is a total scam now.

I consider 90% of office work to be a scam. You don't see plumbers and factory workers playing these make believe work games. The next move in this war will be remote unemployment as companies realize they can fire the remote workforce that isn't working.

That's it for my super sized dose of bitchiness. You probably didn't ask for it, but you got it anyway. Until next time, stay bitchy.

11.03.2024

Putting A Dent In The Universe (A Meditation On The Vanity Of Life)

We’re here to put a dent in the universe. Otherwise why else even be here?
STEVE JOBS

This is a famous quotation from Steve Jobs. Like many famous quotations, it gets taken out of context. The "dent in the universe" is deliberate hyperbole on Jobs's part, and the "here" was Apple Computers. Without a doubt, Steve Jobs put a dent in the universe of tech. I can debate if that dent was a good thing or a bad thing, but that is the subject for some other post. (I despise Apple and its products.)

For many more people, the Steve Jobs quotation is deeper and more philosophical. It amounts to a mission statement for life and a call to do great and glorious things. I felt that call when I turned 18 and graduated from high school. I read some Nietzche and decided that I needed to put my own dent in the universe. But God had other plans for me. He torpedoed my ambitions with the Book of Ecclesiastes from the Bible and the declaration that all is vanity:

Vanity of vanities, said Ecclesiastes vanity of vanities, and all is vanity. What hath a man more of all his labour, that he taketh under the sun? One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth standeth for ever. The sun riseth, and goeth down, and returneth to his place: and there rising again,

Maketh his round by the south, and turneth again to the north: the spirit goeth forward surveying all places round about, and returneth to his circuits. All the rivers run into the sea, yet the sea doth not overflow: unto the place from whence the rivers come, they return, to flow again. All things are hard: man cannot explain them by word. The eye is not filled with seeing, neither is the ear filled with hearing. What is it that hath been? the same thing that shall be. What is it that hath been done? the same that shall be done. Nothing under the sun is new, neither is any man able to say: Behold this is new: for it hath already gone before in the ages that were before us.

There is no remembrance of former things: nor indeed of those things which hereafter are to come, shall there be any remembrance with them that shall be in the latter end.
 
 ECCLESIASTES 1:2-11 DOUAY-RHEIMS

When I read that book, I knew the words to be true. They deflated me with my dreams and ambitions. Taken out of the context of the Bible, Ecclesiastes will drive you to despair. You didn't need to be a Christian to agree with the Holy Bible on this matter. Even an atheist like Shelley knew it to be true:

Ozymandias 
by Percy Bysshe Shelley
 
I met a traveller from an antique land 
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

That poem shows what Ecclesiastes was preaching. Ozymandias put his dent in the universe, and the universe laughed at him. The simple fact is that your life and your projects amount to nothing in the whole scheme of things.

The proper goal and purpose of life is to become a saint. Your greatness is relative to the greatness of Almighty God. Knowing and accepting this requires humility. This was a trait lacking in both Ozymandias and Steve Jobs.

People with humility and a love for God tend to live quiet lives. People filled with pride and vanity live loud lives. That is how you can always tell the proud. They are loud. They want to be noticed, respected, and remembered by the world. The proud want to be somebodies in a world of nobodies.

The best path to take in this life is the devout life. This is the final admonition from Ecclesiastes 12:13 to "fear God and keep His commandments." The devout life is simply following the dictum of Saint Benedict to pray and work. Be humble. Do penance. Say your prayers. Do your work. The world will forget you. God will never forget you.